<TITLE: Security in Europe
ACADEMIC DOMAIN: social sciences
DISCIPLINE: political history
EVENT TYPE: seminar presentation
FILE ID: USEMP020
NOTES: continuation of and continued in USEMD020, presentation mainly read from paper

RECORDING DURATION: 20 min 29 sec

RECORDING DATE: 18.4.2002

NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 8

NUMBER OF SPEAKERS: 2

S1: NATIVE-SPEAKER STATUS: Finnish; ACADEMIC ROLE: senior staff; GENDER: male; AGE: 51-over

S5: NATIVE-SPEAKER STATUS: Lithuanian; ACADEMIC ROLE: undergraduate; GENDER: female; AGE: 17-23>


<S5> so now i'm going to speak about baltic states and NATO </S5>
<SOMEBODY ENTERS THE ROOM>
<S1> uh-huh [welcome can i get your name] </S1>
<S5> [(xx)] so introduction er <READING ALOUD> three baltic states estonia latvia and lithuania are located on the eastern shore of the baltic sea and usually are called er russia's historical window to the west er this location has er brought many invaders during world history er poland russia czarist russia germany and again russia er but er in the last case it was er the soviet union er since 1991 the baltic states have been running away from russia toward europe these three countries have already began negotiations with the european union and will probably achieve er european union membership er during the next er er three or four years but their invitation to join NATO is their second and the most important question here if the baltic states ties with russia and if their status as member satisfy NATO requirements , so er despite the fact the fact that it is already ten years er baltic states are independent and almost everything have changed er some have chan- some NATO members still think of them er as a former soviet republics , alliance members worry that if they invite three states to join NATO to join NATO will (cross) the geographic line er in former soviet states and will -gain and will again create this er the enemy that they (xx) says says have mostly indicated (xx) </READING ALOUD> here er i mentioned about cold war er <READING ALOUD> whereas er (new) estonia latvia and lithuania still (with) too large baggage from the years of slavery under moscow and er that these states as NATO members could be too easy target in case of conflict with russia because some still er some still see the big risk that kremlin er can turn against er the west again </READING ALOUD> so i- in my case in this presentation er i will speak more about er erm situation wou- which would be in case of conflict so it's a non-political but non-militarian er situation and er the structure of presentation er of my presentation consist of these questions so first er i will present the NATO requirements for the new members and introduce what baltic states have already done and what kind of policy they are posing in order to get invitation to join alliance , second one (for revised) er default line of NATO's relations with russia so after baltic states , and finally the question of kaliningrad oblast here (at our case) right (xx) this analyses an obstacle to lithuania or on the pass to NATO membership , so now mhm . the first question it will be requirements er and preparedness at least and of course . erm here at lithuania i will er just develop this question about er er political and military expectations from er NATO members <READING ALOUD> so it is obvious that the new members have to prepare themselves er to join the alliance and the- there are principal obligations for new state members and they are segmen- segmented as political and military </READING ALOUD> so political expectations you can see it's er (looked) from new mem- members if (they are) expected to conform er to basic principles er <READING ALOUD> democracy individual rights and the rule of law accept NATO as a community for collective defence and security and to make contribution er contributions to it from which all members benefit will (xx) for cohesion and alliance on all issues and decision making er they (make) apply NATO security rules and go to procedures provide qualified staff to serve on the international military </READING ALOUD> so and er military expectations er <READING ALOUD> share the rules these these possibilities benefits of common security and collective defence accept NATO doctrine and policies (wanting) to achieve a sufficient level of training and equipment </READING ALOUD> so er follow from this er if we thinks on this requirements and expectations we can conclude that <READING ALOUD> new members have to adapt themselves er to the fact that NATO's policies try to (xx) and force structure are made to operate mul- er multi-nationality and flexibility to provide effective defence but at minimum at and at minimum and equally shared ex- er expenses </READING ALOUD> , er so nowadays there are more than er 1,200 agreements that new members should obligate (also) here we need to point that these ques- questions er has to be an evolu- evolutionary and controlled forces in order to enhance er the alliance effectiveness er so , yes so er from that i will go to another point , it would be this one <POINTING TO THE TRANSPARENCY> er , i would like to explain what baltic states have already done to join NATO . mhm , (xx) and here you see some statistical data er <READING ALOUD> the first erm the first official relations er between the baltic states and NATO have been made in the end of er 91 when NATO invited central and eastern european countries to create and associate an institution the north atlantic cooperation council er in december 92 baltic states have joined er this er council and in january 90 january 94 lithuania officially applied to become NATO member latvia and estonia had followed lithuania in the same year but just a little bit later and their relations with NATO were nailed down further by signing the partnership or for peace documents , and but these documents were seen not as er not as alternative to NATO membership but rather as er transitional instrument or for preparation for accession , er in 96 the baltic states have suggested that er NATO should precisely divide those countries which expressed their wish to join the alliance it's er european countries and those who didn't aspire to become NATO members er for instance russia and ukraine one of the proposals was to endow the baltic states with a status of the future members of future candidates as it has been becoming clear that none of the baltic states would b- er would be between the first invited to join NATO er interestingly enough some politicians call this kind of situations situation er state in the i- in a waiting room </READING ALOUD> so er baltic states are in a waiting room in may 97 the baltic states become members of euro atlantic parliament in brussels which er takes the er (xx) of first one and in here i would like to say that i will not er take under consideration all agreements that are signed between the baltic states and alliance these are the main that show us preparedness for er join and er development of preparedness and by all means the baltic states now make a lot of changes er (xx) in their states' government for example in lithuania the most (xx) index of er changes is er increase of defence spending and er if i remember ex- er in right way er two per cent of the gross domestic product instead of 1.4 , so here i would like to go to another my question is er NATO and baltic st- er NATO and russia's throughout er er the baltic states and here i would like to discuss these er points <POINTING TO THE TRANSPARENCY> it would be the problem of kaliningrad oblast as in minorities in the baltic states and as a border issue so er i say i will speak about ethnic minorities in the baltic states er <READING ALOUD> the most er contentious connection of estonia latvia and lithuania to russia is the large community of russians and russian speakers in estonia and latvia and and latvia the presence of this proportion of population is another important issue in relation between the baltic states russia and NATO after regaining independence new government will attend (xx) relevant dilemma dilemma whether to allow russians to become citizens and if so under what conditions lithuania resolved this case er this issue very quickly because its russian speaking population was quite small er to present political or cultural er threat to ethnic lithuanians lithuanian government allowed a nationalisation and (for none) er ethnic lithuanians very rapidly and with very few conditions er the issue in estonia was more complex because ethnic russians er constituted more than er 28 per cents of the total in latvia this question was most problematic er with ethnic latvians as a minimal majority of the country's population and ethnic russian as er one third part of one third , er the issue of ethnic minorities always was an opportunity for aggressive purposes russian aggressive purpose- purposes and NATO's members are afraid is there need (these states) with a substantial ethnic russian minorities er they can also inherit the re- ready made er con- problem or conflict er whether er whether the question of minorities in the baltic states would become an obstacle for acc- accepting latvia estonia and lithuania into NATO is highly debate er latv- ethnic of er course er linguistic minorities er can be a challenge to political and socie- social stability and estonia and latvia will have to work hard for years to ensure that their societies not only exist but also prosper with this multiform population , in spite of everything the baltic er baltics have already put more than suf- er sufficient attempts to solve er all these questions latvia and estonia eventually passed the law allowing for nationalisation albeit it was very conditionally and in phases latvia latvia and estonia pass some legislations and programmes as an and programme programmes er as a result of these programmes designed to integrate the country's citizenship , language and society it hope that (the loyalty) of the country er of residence will increase undoubt- undoubtedly both the estonian and latvian governments realise that how important is social programming to enter not only NATO but in future also european union organisation and er then maintain their positions </READING ALOUD> so now i will speak about er borders it's er of course on- er one of the most important issues that remains unsolved with russia is that of is that of borders <READING ALOUD> all three states concluded border treaties with russia but the russian government hasn't ratified them any of them er this hesis- er this hesitation is appreciated as russia's campaign against the baltic states join NATO because the alliance has started that stated that it doesn't er it doesn't want to admit states with er unresolved <SIC> territorical </SIC> er territorial issues in point of er that er the issues have been resolved with a silent admittance but the only er remaining step is their ratification , in the baltics er were to be ad- if the baltics were to be admitted to NATO there would be no reason to russia's government to temporise our over-ratification in other words the problem of borders still exist and er there is no intimation that it can be resolved in the short run </READING ALOUD> , er so and now i would like to go to a question of kaliningrad oblast on er i er underlined it because i think for lithuania er it's the most important er issue in speaking about er er membership to NATO , er , without so , er the problem of kaliningrad oblast er <READING ALOUD> without detailing the history of this part of the european continent suffice it to say that kaliningrad always is a small piece of russian territory er situated between poland and lithuania in north north er western europe and it doesn't enjoy a common border with the territory of the russian federation since the end of world war second and er its er ethnic population is overwhelmingly russian er kaliningrad oblast is not vital for the economic well-being of russia but its real importance is to the moscow is in its geographical er location because it presents russia's er purc- purchase in the baltic region it is by this tuning changes in the world russia has had physical presence in the baltic region er baltic region over 300 years but now it presence is diminishing with the enlargement of NATO is was the importance of the kaliningrad oblast to er russia has increased particularly in political ar- are- arena er kaliningrad oblast is er largely viewed er as a russia's visible treasure to the west </READING ALOUD> and in 19- in 1999 poland became er one of the alliance members and there is a possibility that lithuania would join NATO in the next 15 or 20 years so two NATO members will then surround kaliningrad oblast er such prospect is not very pleasant for moscow which means that russia will try to do everything to influence events as i mentioned before or of all three baltic er republi- republics er the one that has er the one that has most to say about kaliningrad er oblast is lithuania there were and there are a lot of discussions and lithuanian and russian politicians play in certain sense they play with the status of kaliningrad oblast as an example in (L E) 201 a (xx) reports that er russia had stored nuclear weapon in the kaliningrad oblast and with this moscow might use er kaliningrad to er detain NATO enlargement to the er three baltic states of course NATO denied er all this er mhm all charges and there was no evidence to subst- to subs- er -tantiate it but it highlights er highlights the potentiality of kaliningrad oblast and its importance er er for not only for russia but also for lithuania for all that er the status of kaliningrad oblast is er still in there in political arena and it is not known er when politicians of two countries all (xx) defined but in political world exist an opinion that while issue of kaliningrad oblast is not er solved lithuania will be not be grant NATO membership er interesting enough it is possible that moscow would allow kaliningrad to become an independent or to join lithuania er but it is hardly to believe that russia will refuse an opportunity to have a partly control in the baltic sea region because in case of conflict russia would have two positions near the baltic states it's er kaliningrad oblast and another one it's er gulf of finland , so and as a conclusion i would like to say mhm , that more er estonia and latvia er in mhm if estonia and latvia er would like to join NATO they have er er to resolve these er problem a problem with russian speaking minorities so as i told you before and for lithuania er there's still very important questions kaliningrad oblast and how er lithuania and europe and russia will er er find a consensus in this er about this questions so but er exist one er mhm er so in political words is this one er no- notion that maybe at first baltic states will join european union and this will er er european union will help these baltic states to resolve all these questions and er the first er er reaction of russia will go to (erm) european union will take the first we will take the first reaction of russia and only then baltic states will enter NATO probably will enter NATO but it's still , very very is difficult question so it was my presentation </S5>
